Snarf..snarf...

Memorial Day

2010-05-31T10:24:00.001-07:00

Thank you to all that have served.

Summer's Here!

2010-05-29T09:41:00.004-07:00

Woof!

Bernanke Re-Confirmation in Jeopardy: Contact Your Senator

2010-01-26T06:43:00.003-07:00

The re-confirmation of Ben Bernanke as Chairman of the Federal Reserve appears to be in jeopardy. A month ago, it appeared to be a foregone conclusion that Bernanke would continue on as Chairman. Now, it appears some are looking at his record at the Fed and have determined that continuing with Bernanke while expecting different results might be the definition of insanity.

If you have an opinion one way or the other, call or e-mail your Senator and let them know.

If you oppose Bernanke's re-confirmation, but you're not sure what to say, you might start with:

Dear Senator [so-and-so],
I am a resident of [City, State] and ask that you please oppose the re-confirmation of Ben Bernanke for Federal Reserve Chairman. Bernanke has proven he cannot fulfill the Federal Reserve's dual mandate of price stability and full employment and thus has shown he is not qualified to serve a second term as Chairman.

The vote for cloture (to end a filibuster blocking a vote on his re-confirmation) looks to be close right now, so your input may make a difference if your Senators have not decided yet.

Simple Daily Backup Script for Subversion Repositories

2009-11-22T21:45:00.002-07:00

Here's a simple shell script for backing up a Subversion repository on *nix:

#!/bin/sh

# get current date in YYYY-MM-DD format
CURR_DATE=`date +%F`

# define the filename for today's backup, e.g. repo-dumpfile.2009-11-22.gz
FILENAME="/var/backup/svn/repo-dumpfile.${CURR_DATE}.gz"

# set umask so that the file created has permissions of 600
umask 0177

# perform the backup
# note: stderr is being re-directed to /dev/null - you may not want this
/usr/bin/svnadmin dump /var/cm/svn/repo/ 2>/dev/null | gzip > $FILENAME

AZ MVD Either Super-Hip or Super-Unhip

2009-07-19T20:21:00.002-07:00

Does the MVD know what this license-plate means?

Pretty sweet either way.

In Case You Forgot What a Dust Storm Looks Like...

2009-07-19T20:15:00.002-07:00

Jen provoked this dust storm by getting her car washed and waxed yesterday; it's pristine. Luckily, we thought ahead and took the Cherokee, which is already at maximum dirtiness.

US Attorney Inserts Goldman Sachs' Foot into Goldman's Mouth

2009-07-06T21:50:00.006-07:00

Bloomberg is reporting that Assistant U.S. Attorney Joseph Facciponti told a federal judge:

The bank [Goldman Sachs] has raised the possibility that there is a danger that somebody who knew how to use this program could use it to manipulate markets in unfair ways

Naturally, this is in contrast to Goldman Sachs' usage of the program to manipulate the markets in fair ways.

Facciponti made this statement as part of the criminal complaint filed against Sergey Aleynikov, a former trading platform developer at Goldman Sachs who allegedly (and admittedly, apparently) took a copy of the trading platform software when he left.

Now that Goldman's ability to manipulate the public stock and commodity markets is a matter of record, will there be an investigation into if and when Goldman Sachs has manipulated the markets to their advantage?

Surely GS did not develop the power to manipulate markets just to sit on it, especially given GS' role as the NYSE's Supplemental Liquidity Provider and ownership of more than 50-60% of the NYSE's program trading volume.

Independence Day

2009-07-04T09:08:00.002-07:00

Here's what Thomas Jefferson and the Second Continental Congress had to say about Independence Day:

When in the Course of human events, it becomes necessary for one people to dissolve the political bands which have connected them with another, and to assume among the powers of the earth, the separate and equal station to which the Laws of Nature and of Nature's God entitle them, a decent respect to the opinions of mankind requires that they should declare the causes which impel them to the separation.

We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness. That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed, That whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their Safety and Happiness. Prudence, indeed, will dictate that Governments long established should not be changed for light and transient causes; and accordingly all experience hath shewn, that mankind are more disposed to suffer, while evils are sufferable, than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are accustomed. But when a long train of abuses and usurpations, pursuing invariably the same Object evinces a design to reduce them under absolute Despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such Government, and to provide new Guards for their future security.

The Declaration of Independence is a key document and turning point in the history of our nation; I encourage you to re-read it. The Declaration lists many grievances, but the ones describing lack of representation by the people and the King's refusal to assent to laws struck the strongest chord with me.

I wonder what Thomas Jefferson and the other members of the Continental Congress would say about the current issues of our day: the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, bailouts of private banks and companies by the People, the influence of lobbyists in government, universal health care, cap-and-trade carbon taxation, etc. Would the Continental Congress say our current government is working as they hoped and intended? Would their viewpoints be relevant given the tremendous change of the intervening 233 years?

Today, the Declaration of Independence has reminded me that We have the right to petition the government and an expectation of response by our elected representatives. Further, the Declaration has reminded me that we have the right to change the government to serve the people. I hope it reminds you of something, too.

Google Wave - The Next Big Thing?

2009-05-29T22:01:00.004-07:00

I am super-impressed with what I have seen about Google Wave, the new collaborative communication tool that was announced this week.

Wave melds e-mail, instant messaging, document creation, and more into one coherent environment. There's plenty of feature-candy too, like:

document creation functionality has notion of branches and merging as well as inline comments (that can be stripped on 'publish')
context-aware spell-checker that can determine if you used the wrong correctly-spelled word
automatic translation of text from one language to another
the ability to split a portion of one message into its own thread within a wave; "inline replies" get their own thread

The product team did a great demo launch at Google I/O, you can watch it on YouTube:

Mediterranean Pictures

2009-05-22T08:17:00.003-07:00

Jen, Tina, Jeff, and I put together a photobook of our trip to the Mediterranean:

Click here to view this photo book larger

We had it printed and we love it.

Joe the Software Engineer on Saving

2009-05-06T21:26:00.002-07:00

My friend and colleague Joe was interviewed by the Mvelopes blog to find out how he used Mvelopes to save a bunch of money to kick the credit crack. He found Mvelopes helped him see where his money was going and helped him stick to his budget.

If you are looking for some assistance with a savings program Mvelopes may be just the ticket. There is a monthly fee, but they do have free trials.

Geithner's Gotta Go

2009-02-23T20:19:00.004-07:00

President Obama,
Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner needs to be replaced with a leader who engenders respect and can create and explain in detail an honest, fair, realistic, general-purpose plan to restore the US' financial health.

Many people were skeptical of Geithner's nomination since he is one of the key banking insiders responsible for our current financial crisis. After all, as head of the New York Fed, Geithner was the primary regulator for Citigroup and other Wall Street banks. Additionally, he ignored the danger of the unregulated OTC derivatives market which appears to be the most destructive, yet completely unaddressed, threat to our financial institutions. It seems unlikely a person so blind to the warning signs and ineffective in the past year will guide us out of this crisis.

Today's joint release is a shockingly perfect example of Geithner's ineffectiveness. The Magic Pixie Capital 'plan' whereby Treasury and the Fed sprinkle borrowed/printed capital on obviously insolvent financial institutions whenever they need it is worse than ineffective. The stock, bond, commodity, and political Markets are looking right through this thinly-veiled guarantee to 'bail at all costs.' The Markets know that Citigroup and its ilk are worth far less than zero, and the US taxpayer cannot bear their debt. US fiscal policy alone has placed us on the path of monetizing the debt (aka buy silver and gold - Asia, India, and the Middle East love these timeless monies). Adding the financial system's liabilities to the US' balance sheet risks the destruction of the dollar. Iceland and the UK have provided us a warning -- the krona is done and the pound is on its way. China's warning has been even more explicit.

The citizens of the United States are already on the hook for three black holes: AIG, Fannie Mae, and Freddie Mac. Combined, they have expressed need for $260B in the last 7 days! We do not need Citigroup, Bank of America, or any other institution. If a bank is insolvent, guarantee the deposits and cram down the capital structure until it is ready to go. If there is not enough capital, then liquidate them without creating more 'too big to fail' institutions. We need a functioning banking system and there are plenty of good banks out there -- the zombies are just getting in the way.

Former Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson's ad-hoc approach to the financial crisis could be explained away as the winddown of the Bush administration and the 'surprise' of it all -- classic Kick The Can by a guy who helped create the problems. However, now that we have been in the frying pan for more than a year no one can claim to be surprised, least of all Timothy Geithner.

Maybe it's time to pass the reins to Volcker; he is a respected leader with a track record of speaking clearly and he proved his mettle in hard times. There are many people qualified for the job, but perhaps the most important quality to obtain is courage as there is a lot of painful work that needs to be done and now is the best time to start that work. If the plan is honest and fair, the American people will do their part.

P.S. Press Secretary Gibbs should probably tone it down. Many people have had the chance to read the Homeowner Affordability and Stability Plan Executive Summary and it will bailout a significant number of reckless lenders and borrowers. We get that you need to throw another $100B at both Fannie and Freddie -- not your fault. However, marketing the Affordability Plan as something which will not bailout Sub-prime/Option-ARM/Alt-A/income-could-never-retire-the-debt borrowers and lenders is a mistake because it's provably not true. Gibbs probably doubled the turnout to the Chicago Tea Party with his response to Santelli which starts off decent enough, but then goes overboard on the sarcasm.

Romantic Statistics

2009-02-11T07:31:00.005-07:00

Significant-other logic from the brilliant XKCD:

Shutterfly is Hiring

2009-02-05T20:39:00.002-07:00

Shutterfly is hiring!

The most immediate openings are to staff the new printing facility here in Phoenix. The three main categories of jobs are:

shift manager
maintenance manager
maintenance tech

Details are available on the Shutterfly jobs page.

I really like Shutterfly and recommend it. I think they are looking for folks with industrial engineering and/or supply chain experience for the shift manager positions. The maintenance folks will be responsible for printing as well as bindery tools. Shutterfly is participating in a job fair next Monday and Tuesday at the Crown Plaza Phoenix Airport location.

The jobs page doesn't list it, but if you are an Adobe Flex and Flash all-star, we would love to have you.

I will pass on your resume if you are interested in any of these jobs.

Better than BARF

2009-02-01T14:09:00.004-07:00

The banksters are ramping up the talk of a "bad bank" to take the losing bets of the financial system and give them to the US taxpayer. Naturally, the financial system will keep the winning bets. The Bad Asset Repository Fund is a bad idea for a lot of reasons -- the best two of which are that the US taxpayer can't afford the 3-4 trillion dollar tab and no one is going to lend it to us anyway. Forbes has more of the story on BARF.

However, something must be done. The best suggestion I have seen so far is from Karl Derringer at Market Ticker and it runs basically like this (full post):

Bring the Credit Default Swap market above-board:

Force contracts to be backed by capital -- if there's no capital, void the contract.
Require all new CDS contracts to be written against a public exchange.
Consider prohibition of 'naked' shorting via CDSes. (I would.)

Suspend trading of bank stocks for two weeks; send in the bank regulators and mark everything to market. Banks that are insolvent according to Tier Capital rules get "crammed down" and their new owners (current bondholders) decide if current management stays or goes.
If a crammed down bank still cannot survive, the FDIC takes over the bank and handles it like the Resolution Trust Corporation of old. This is actually a self-funding bad bank model that has no/minimal asset valuation problems. The taxpayer won't be financing a give-away to the banksters.
Offer the second half of the TARP to healthy banks that want it or to spin up new banks. Personally, I wouldn't mind seeing the creation of a few more P2P LendingClub-like organizations.
Investigate the fraud and prosecute it vigorously (go Andrew Cuomo!). The financial system is rife with it:

the banks, commercial and "investment"
the rating agencies
the Fed
the government: Treasury, FDIC, SEC, OTS, OCC, Congress -- all of them

Derringer's plan:

The total cost of this approach to the taxpayer is practically nothing -- stimulus bill rounding error not counting #4, and $350B with it included
Brings transparency back to the financial markets (mark-to-market), no more 'over-the-counter' CDS contracts
Punishes management and stockholders of the banks that made bad loans and decisions; gives what is left of the bad banks to its creditors -- exactly what happens to other bankrupt businesses
Rewards well-managed banks for their prudence by clearing the way for them to take the bad banks' customers
Serves up justice for the people responsible for this mess

Investing for the Future

2009-01-03T07:51:00.007-07:00

What would have happened if you had invested $1000 on the last market day of the year in the following investments, starting on Dec 31 2000?

Investment value on Dec 31, 2008:

Gold - $16,043.10
Silver - $11,446.20
S&P 500 - $4,370.23
5-year CD - $10,573.45
Cash - $9,000.00

Surprising observations:

the S&P 500 investment lost over 56% of the principal invested
gold did not lose value in any year (on a year-over-year basis)

I only analyzed back to 2000 because that is when I began saving for retirement through a 401k.

This simple analysis leaves me wondering:

Why do 401ks (at least the ones I have seen) not provide precious metals or CDs as investment options? Why must our retirement plans always have something at risk?
If gold is merely a store of wealth and not a 'productive' investment, then how on earth can it be providing the best returns over a non-trivial timeframe like 8 years? How big is the credit bubble? Is the US dollar a bubble and is it popping?

Many stock market pundits are proclaiming that now is a great stock-buying opportunity. Haven't they been saying that for 8 years? Isn't the S&P 500 still overpriced historically in terms of earnings and relative to GDP? Keep in mind that financial companies accounted for something like 40% of the S&P 500's earnings in recent years and a large portion of US GDP only exists in a credit bubble. That trend will not hold in 2009. This means stock market prices must decline to keep pace with declining earnings and GDP.

The S&P 500 closed out 2008 at 903; according to my hand-waving (aka analysis) the S&P 500 needs to go below 650 to reach valuations similar to the '74, '78, and '80 recessions. Yet having the S&P touch 650, 600, or even 550 does not mean that it is a good time to buy stocks. Consider the stagflationary period from Aug 11, 1972 to Aug 6 1982; the S&P 500 went from 119 to 103. I haven't done the math on what you'd have left after adjusting for inflationary losses after the 15% nominal loss, but it's not pretty.

It seems like saving money for the future should be a simple matter as long as one has the means and the willpower, and yet it isn't. Why is that?

Pricing data was obtained from:

Gold and Silver: Kitco Metals Inc
S&P 500: Google Finance
5-Year CD Rates: Jumbo CD Investments

My Investment Analysis is available as a Google Spreadsheet. I am most interested in any and all errors you find.

Disclosures:

Long gold and silver
Almost long energy commodities - will buy when deflation halts
Short US stocks
Short US real estate - residential losses halfway (changed from 'mostly') done, commercial just getting warmed up
Short US dollar except vs Euro

Happy New Year!

2009-01-01T07:57:00.001-07:00

Happy New Year 2009, everybody!

Jen and I wish you a healthy and happy one. Jojo wishes you would just pet her without looking at her.

Great Customer Service from REI

2008-12-15T21:33:00.002-07:00

In 2006, Jen and I bought lightweight, weatherproof 'Taku' jackets from REI. I think we got them on clearance -- mine was around $80, Jen's $65, well under the $150+ jackets in this category usually retail for. Anyway, sometime in 2007, we received recall notices from REI saying that there was a defective zipper and to bring the jackets in for repair. Since our jackets were doing fine, we ignored the notices and just kept on using the jackets. Two months ago, the zipper problem struck both jackets.

Finally, it got cold enough that running with the pit-vent zipper stuck open was unacceptable to me. I took the jackets into REI sans receipt. The REI folks looked up our separately-purchased jackets via our REI membership ids. The recall period had passed, but the assistant manager offered an exchange credit. It soon became clear to her that what I really wanted was a functioning jacket (and not enough store credit to only replace one jacket), so she offered to have the zippers replaced free-of-charge. I picked up the repaired jackets today and they look good. I'll try mine out on tomorrow morning's cold, wet run with Jojo -- expecting all sunshine and rainbows from the Taku.

Thanks REI, that's great customer service!

Sometimes I wonder if paying a little more is worth being able to choose from a wide selection of high-quality products and to be assisted by knowledgeable and passionate employees who are empowered to delight their customers. Today and most days, I definitely think it is worth it.

Happy Thanksgiving!

2008-11-27T07:43:00.002-07:00

Happy Thanksgiving, everyone!

I am thankful for...

my bubbas, Jen and JoJo
our families
our jobs
our house
our friends
plentiful food
the Constitution and the Bill of Rights
the people who protect our liberty and safety
the Internet and Free and Open Source Software
my physical fitness and the ability to run, hike, and play fetch
the ability and the right to read and write whatever I want
opportunity

New Kuenzli Picture Site

2008-11-26T09:18:00.002-07:00

Jen and I have created a new 'Kuenzli Family' picture website via Shutterfly's Share service. I've uploaded a bunch of our recent pictures - trips to San Francisco and Santa Fe as well as pictures of Bandit and my niece Jacquelyn's baptism.

Crash Course

2008-11-17T20:48:00.002-07:00

A friend pointed me to Crash Course today. Crash Course is a thoughtful and easy-to-understand explanation of how the US economy got into the current mess and makes some conjectures as to where it is going. (nb: thoughtful and easy-to-understand does not mean correct, but the analysis is worth consideration)

The author, Chris Martenson, has a pretty interesting background and communication style that resonates with my engineering brain.

I recommend going through the entire online course, which is free, even though it will take a few hours. I'm fairly addicted to economic and financial news and books and I was pleasantly surprised at how often Martenson clearly explained something that I previously had trouble understanding (like how the Fed creates money and how much our financial system and economy depend on growth). Martenson also draws links between energy and the money supply that I had not considered previously but I find intriguing.

The most useful part of the course may be the final chapter where Martenson shows how to think through and prepare for the various scenarios yourself via a Failure Mode Effects Analysis-like process. It's time to break out the spreadsheet.

Shilling for Shutterfly

2008-11-05T20:48:00.003-07:00

My super-fantastic employer, Shutterfly, has offers all kinds of thoughtful, personal cards, gifts, and photo prints -- and a lot of it's on sale. We just received an order of thank you notes and they've been customized with our favorite picture from our trip to Sante Fe. Jen's given them her seal of approval.

Shutterfly has holiday cards, picture printing, photo books (a coffee-table quality picture 'scrapbook'), and lots more. The design tools are pretty sweet too. I didn't even think the stuff we're doing was possible in a web browser.

America Voted!

2008-11-05T20:42:00.002-07:00

It looks like an awesome ~65.7% of eligible voters voted in the 2008 presidential election. This is the highest turnout since 1908 and bests the previous modern record of 63.8% observed in the 1960 Kennedy-Nixon contest.

Loans that Change Lives - Kiva.org

2008-10-24T20:18:00.004-07:00

Loans that Change Lives is the catchphrase of Kiva, a person-to-person micro-lending website. Ok, so what does that mean?

It means you can easily fund entrepreneurs in the developing world. You peruse the list of potential borrowers and fund a portion ($25 or $50, typically) of a $500-$1000 loan. The loan is paid back in monthly installments and you get updates about how the entrepreneur is doing.

I've made 8 loans so far and no defaults yet. It will be interesting to see if/how the credit crunch in the developed world impacts the developing world. The strength of the dollar is going to make it difficult for borrowers to earn enough in their local currency to stay current on the (unsecured) loan. This is the key problem presented by deflation -- asset prices drop but loan obligations do not.

It's Bonus Time for Wall Street

2008-10-19T20:40:00.003-07:00

It looks like the Wall Street Bailout of 2008 is working wonderfully. It is working so well, in fact, that Wall Street executives will take home approximately $70 Billion dollars in bonuses for their 'performance' in 2008.

WTF.

Vote in '08! - II

2008-10-04T07:39:00.002-07:00

The Arizona voter registration deadline is Monday, so get registered or request your early ballot if you haven't already.

For those looking for an objective view of the candidates, I've come across two more resources:

PolitiFact's Truth-o-Meter
Peter Norvig's Presidential FAQ. Peter is a leader in Artificial Intelligence, and is one of the folks responsible for ensuring Google returns good results.

Casting an informed ballot is cool.

Be cool.

How Your Representatives Voted on the Bailout

2008-09-30T22:09:00.002-07:00

You can check how your representatives voted on The Bailout, aka House Vote 674.

Arizona's four Republican and four Democrat representatives all voted No.

Thanks -- that took guts.

The Bailout is Dead! Long Live the Bailout!

2008-09-29T20:49:00.005-07:00

The Bailout is Dead!
The 'revised' bailout bill failed. For 99% of citizens this is a good thing - the bailout was only going to treat the symptoms on Wall Street while ignoring the real problem - a bunch of Americans with too much debt. Two weeks of negotiation merely managed to turn a 3-page blank check into a 110-page blank check. Kudos to the House Republicans and Democrats who voted no. There are plenty of options that have a historically-proven chance of succeeding, this is not one of them.

I like Nouriel Roubini's HOME plan, though a Swedish-style nationalization would probably work too. In any event, the taxpayer should be guaranteed equity in the institution being bailed out. Astute observers will note this is exactly what Warren Buffett demanded when the Oracle of Omaha invested capital in Goldman Sachs.

Long Live the Bailout!
Bloomberg is reporting that the Fed has decided not to wait that the Fed has decided not to wait for our elected representatives to bailout the finance industry. They are going to 'inject' (aka print) $630,000,000,000 into the global financial system starting...now. I don't know why they'd shovel $630B through the backdoor instead of $700B. Maybe the willful violation of Congress' authority would be noticed?

Ben Bernanke is going to use the power of the press to defeat the nation's debt - by making the dollar worthless.

This kind of approach tends to piss off your lenders, like China, who may decide to stop lending. Let's hope other lenders do not follow suit because the US will default on its debt if they do.

What can/should you do?

Pay off all credit-card debt. Borrowed money is about to get expensive.
Re-finance all adjustable rate debt to fixed rates. When your debt is at a fixed rate, inflation works to erase it.
Sell large assets denominated in USD and move any cash savings to (currently) solid currencies: Canadian/Australian/Hong Kong dollars, the Euro is pretty good except the Euro-zone is about to have its own subprime meltdown. You can do this at E*Trade; it's easy. Remember, just as inflation eats away at your debt, it eats away at your savings.
Invest in commodity indices like energy (RJN) and metals (RJZ). The nice thing about investing in energy commodities is that it will offset what you are paying at the pump. Energy commodities are also priced in dollars, so they will increase in price with inflation (as will gas prices).

More Economics Reading - I promise it's not dismal!
If you want to know more, I highly recommend the following:

Economist blogs:

Nouriel Roubini's Economonitor
Greg Mankiw's Random Observations for Students of Economics
Brad DeLong Grasping Reality With Both Hands

Books:

Peter Schiff - Crash Proof
Jim Rodgers - Hot Commodities and A Bull in China

Vote in '08!

2008-09-21T14:51:00.003-07:00

The 2008 Presidential election is drawing near and with it, your chance to help determine the direction of our country.

If you're not registered to vote, please do so now. It's easy and registration deadlines are approaching quickly. In Arizona, the deadline is October 6 and you can register register or request your mail-in ballot online.

Both the Obama and McCain campaigns detail their policy proposals on their websites. The policies are easy to read and (last time I checked) do not contain the rhetoric you often hear them described through. I think there's a good chance you will learn something new about the candidates' views on issues you care about and whole-heartedly recommend reading both sides.

If you're wondering whether some statement is 'true', a good place to check is the non-partisan FactCheck.org. I've also found Wikipedia to be a good start point for research. As you can imagine, the Wikipedia biographies and topics central to the election have seen much addition and review.

Vote in '08!

Chandler Community Emergency Response Team

2008-09-18T21:40:00.004-07:00

I am in the second week of the 'G-17' class of the Community Emergency Response Team (CERT) offered by the city of Chandler. The idea behind CERT is to train folks in the community to be able to assist in and help organize responses to emergencies within the community.

The class runs 7 weeks and covers the following topics:

Disaster Preparedness, Terrorism, and CERT
Disaster Fire Safety & Suppression; the CERT Organization
Disaster Medical Operations I
Disaster Medical Operations II
Basic Search and Rescue
Disaster Psychology
Course Review and Disaster Simulation

We are learning valuable information about being safe and assisting during an emergency. Some of the material is review from my Boy Scout days or 'common' sense, but there is hands-on stuff too such as using a fire extinguisher to put out a small fire or how to shut off electricity and gas to a house. CERT is a national program, but has been tailored to emphasize local kinds of emergencies such as monsoons and heat exhaustion. The class is taught by the dedicated and enthusiastic personnel of the Chandler Fire Department.

They announced a new CERT class will be starting on next week on Friday 9/26; you can sign up online if you are interested. Gilbert has a CERT program as well. Be prepared to invest 3 hours per-week.

P.S. If I give you a fire extinguisher for Christmas, this is why.

We now own Fannie and Freddie

2008-09-07T10:29:00.005-07:00

The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) has just placed Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac into conservatorship with investment and guidance from the Treasury. This action is taken in coordination with the Federal Reserve.

It appears the Treasury is going to invest $100 billion each into Fannie and Freddie.

A bit of background:

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac hold over $5 trillion in US mortgage-backed securities, almost half of the $12T total.
Fannie and Freddie currently have about $1.6 trillion of debt, owed mostly to large, often foreign, investors.
Fannie and Freddie both raised capital in recent stock offerings ($14.4B and $6B, respectively), but this capital is being eaten away by the massive losses it is taking on the mortgage-backed securities it owns.

From the FHFA's conservatorship fact sheet:

A conservatorship is the legal process in which a person or entity is appointed to establish control and oversight of a Company to put it in a sound and solvent condition. In a conservatorship, the powers of the Company’s directors, officers, and shareholders are transferred to the designated Conservator.

Conservatorship is basically Chapter 11 for organizations "too big to fail."

FHFA was formally established Sept 3, 2008 (3 days ago) by combining two other government agencies.

The deal appears to be structured in a way that the Treasury has not assumed the $1.6T debt of Fannie and Freddie. Whether the market believes this debt is going to be backstopped by the Treasury is another matter.

This 'bail-in' is remarkably similar to similar actions taken by the International Monetary Fund and the Treasury to combat financial crises in Mexico in 1992 and Asia in 1997. The main difference is that today's actions are much larger -- $200B compared to maybe $100B for Asia, which was lent by the developed world via the IMF -- not just the U.S..

The general idea here is that Fannie and Freddie must survive because they play a critical role in the US mortgage market liquidity. Failures by the mortgage market-makers would literally freeze the housing market -- no selling or buying at any price unless you're paying cash.

What do Fannie and Freddie do, exactly?
Fannie and Freddie improve market liquidity by:

buying individual mortgage loans from the primary lender (Chase Mortgage, for example)
packaging individual mortgages into larger collections called mortgage-backed securities or collateralized-debt obligations with certain risk-reward properties
selling these securities back to commercial and investment banks, but also to sovereign wealth, real-estate, pension, and hedge funds

The effect of this is that the primary lender does not have to hold the mortgage it lent on its own books. Whether this promotes lax lending practices as epitomized by no-doc, no-down, interest-only, teaser-intro-rate loans is an exercise left to the reader.

What did Fannie and Freddie do wrong?
Fannie and Freddie got into trouble by investing their own capital in these mortgage-backed securities because they saw all their large-investor customers making money hand-over-fist during the housing bubble.

They literally drank their own Kool-Aid.

Compounding this problem is that Fannie and Freddie were/are Government Sponsored Entities (GSEs). The trouble is that GSEs are strange public-private beasts and though technically their debt is not backed by the government, many in the market sort of believed it was. This meant investors were willing to lend Fannie and Freddie very large sums of money at close-to-Treasury rates. The T-bill is one of the world benchmarks for safe money. Fannie and Freddie took this money and bought the far-from-safe-MBSes it was selling.

W. T. F.

What's Treasury (You) doing?
Just to re-iterate, Fannie and Freddie own almost half of the U.S.' mortgage assets.

Now the Treasury (this means you and your taxes) is trying to clean up the mess by giving them $200B and a plan. Treasury Secretary Paulson appears to be doing a pretty good job managing this mess. The capital infusion comes with real provisions to protect taxpayers and restructure the way Fannie and Freddie do business, which was a key to success in the Mexico and Asian bail-in.

The responsibility to execute this plan and to prevent further occurrences of this kind of problem fall to the next President -- be sure to ask your candidate about it.

I.O.U.S.A. - Wake Up!

2008-08-24T10:23:00.005-07:00

Jen and I saw the film I.O.U.S.A. Thursday night.

The film is a sobering look at the debt-level and deficit-spending of the United States. The short story is that the United States government currently owes about:

$9,500,000,000,000 (9.5 trillion USD)

If you are a US citizen, your personal share of this debt is $31,600.

United States tax revenues for 2008 are approximately $2.4T USD and expenditures are about $2.8T USD. So, the U.S. will add at least $400B to our debt this year (note: saying 'at least' here, because a lot of the War on Terror is not included in the official budget). The most memorable line from the film for me was George W. Bush chuckling that he "got a B in economics, but an A in tax cuts." I really wish he'd studied harder because he took a budget surplus (Clinton did it with the help of Congress) and managed to double our national debt with 8 years of deficit-spending.

The public debt is important because the citizens of the United States have to pay it back. As the film points out, the accumulation of public debt is taxation without representation -- not just we, but our children will be saddled with this burden. The burden can only be relieved in two ways:

collect more tax revenue than what is spent; pay down debt
printing money

#2 is a really bad option because it will cause hyper-inflation and political unrest, e.g. 2008 Zimbabwe, pre-WWII Germany.

That leaves us with paying down the debt with tax surpluses. Saturday Night Live has done a funny how-to skit explaining how to do this.

A somewhat 'sideways' option is just to pay the interest. If we were to only pay the interest on the debt, about $237B in 2007, we are consuming ~10% of the federal budget to do it even at today's low interest rates. This money could have been spent on something more productive like development of renewable energy, returned to the people as lower taxes, or bringing back the unicorn.

Only buying stuff you can afford sounds a bit simplistic and a little un-fun, but it is sustainable.

But wait! There's more!

The unfunded liabilities of the social programs Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security bump our debt up to the order of $53T (your personal share is $175,000). This number can and probably must change as this money has not actually been spent yet -- however, this is the current level of spending guaranteed by our current laws. As a country, we are going to need to decide how to fulfill our social obligations in a manner consistent with our country's ideals, varied as they are.

The town-hall discussion that followed the film had the following leaders:

Warren Buffet (world's richest person)
David Walker (former head of GAO)
Pete Peterson (Blackstone Group, Pete Peterson Foundation)
Bill Novelli (AARP)
William Niskanen (CATO Institute)

in a lot of agreement on the broad strokes of how to fix the problems facing our social programs. The proposed solutions boiled down to focusing the benefits on those that really need them and then delivering those benefits efficiently. Means-testing benefits and putting the programs on a budget were suggested immediate, "given" steps, but the consensus recommendation seemed to be for a bi-partisan commission to recommend specific solutions to be enacted.

These discussions are an important starting point for fixing the fiscal ails of our country. I hope to see our Obama and McCain addressing these topics as we close in on the presidential election.

Process Control from QualiMente

2008-08-18T07:10:00.004-07:00

I have made the initial release of the process control system I developed this summer. The software is owned and supported by my company, QualiMente.

The software is available for free under the GNU GPL v3 and can be deployed to any Java Enterprise Edition container.

The software and documentation are a work in progress, but it is ready to be experimented with and many technical details available already. Feel free to contact me with any questions.

If you have any suggestions for a good name for this software, please drop me a line!

New Job: Shutterfly

2008-08-09T08:42:00.003-07:00

As some of you know, I wrapped up my gig at Wells Fargo just about a month ago. I took a little time off to work on some personal projects, which Jen graciously obliged (actually, she did refer to me as her "unemployed husband" a lot, maybe not so gracious :). A couple weeks ago, I started looking for a new, permanent job in earnest. I've landed at:

Shutterfly

Shutterfly is a website that helps folks share their memories through digital photo printing, photo books, and personalized gifts.

I'll be working on some of the back-end servers that make all that magic happen. I'm really excited because I'll be working:

with talented folks
on products real customers actually use
in a challenging technical environment

Each of these was an important factor in selecting Shutterfly and I can't wait to join them.

As an extra bonus, I finally get to use Linux at my day-job. Awesome!

Book Review: The Mythical Man Month

2008-06-21T16:29:00.007-07:00

What to say about The Mythical Man-Month?

Underrated.

If you haven't read it, the platitudes you've heard are true. MMM is a series of insightful essays on the practice of software software development. MMM was first published in 1975 and quickly reached classic status. The 20th anniversary edition clarifies a few things in some new essays, but the originals are left intact. The author, Fred Brooks, was a project manager at IBM who led the development of the IBM System/360 operating system and shares his experience and research on projects big and small. System 360 is one of the most successful computer systems in history.

One of the main tenets of the book is that:

Adding manpower to a late project makes it later.

Most seasoned developers know this to be true, or at least feel that way when they're explaining a whole bunch of context to the new guy two days from the deadline. Naturally, this does not prevent "optimistic" project and resource managers from trying this stunt.

I was not expecting many surprises from MMM since I already knew that adding people to projects close to deadlines just makes it later. However, I was thoroughly surprised to find not just one or two, but most of the 18 included essays capture some timeless truth of the software development process. I've captured two pages of quotes and notes for inclusion in presentations and design communications. In addition to the MMM aphorism, my favorites are:

Conceptual integrity is the most important consideration in system design
Productivity is constant. Higher-level languages can increase productivity 5x.
Plan to throw one away; you will anyhow.
One must assume there will be lots of bugs and plan an orderly procedure for snaking them out.
Approaches to addressing essential parts of the software task: buy instead of build, rapid prototyping to establish requirements, grow software organically via iteration, identify great conceptual designers [and let them work]
I [Brooks] believe the hard part of building software to be the specification, design, and testing, of this conceptual construct, not the labor of representing it and testing the fidelity of the representation.

Brooks said all this in 1975! 33 years have passed and you'll still get arguments on each of these points in many environments. People are pretty good at ignoring prior art.

The only criticism that I can levy at Brooks is that his writing style is a bit...dry. Obviously, I think it's good stuff, but MMM's not going to leave you rolling in the aisles. So, if you're trying to clue-in your management, I'd suggest giving them Peopleware first and then follow-up with The Mythical Man-Month.

Grand Canyon - Rim-to-Rim-to-Rim

2008-05-30T12:39:00.023-07:00

I just got back from a great backpacking trip in the Grand Canyon with my friends Juan and Tomasz. We went off the North Rim on Saturday morning (yes, that's light snow):

The weather warmed up shortly after dropping below the rim. We camped our first night in Cottonwood Camp, about 7 miles down and in. The next day, we trekked a flat 7 miles down to Bright Angel Campground at Phantom Ranch.

After lunch, we came up with the brilliant idea that "since we're here, why don't we hike up to the South Rim, too?" Bag two rims with one trip. We calculated that Phantom Ranch was 7 horizontal miles from the and only one vertical mile from the South Rim. Twenty-one miles in one day is a lot for one day, but we were getting passed by thru-hikers all day so we figured we could do it. Plus, there there is beer and hamburgers on the rim. Of course to pull off a stunt like this, you need to be good at ignoring warning signs.

(Click on the picture to read the fine print)

Also, you have to ignore that the menu at the Phantom Ranch restaurant/store has beer and steak.

Fortunately, all three of us are good at ignoring things. Look how happy we were when we got to the South Rim:

Totally worth it.

Oh, it turns out that Phantom Ranch is 9 miles from the South Rim, so our 21 mile hike was actually 25. The beer and hamburger were awfully good, though.

The next day, we made our way back up to Cottonwood Campground. We did not have any bright ideas on this day -- our feet hurt too much.

On our final night and morning, we went into "locust" mode and ate as much of our food as we could so we would have the energy to make it up the North Rim, which is about 1000 ft higher than the South. We had a great hike and it even ended with a terrific view of the San Francisco Peaks in Flagstaff.

Rim to Rim to Rim!

Naturally, we took a lot of pictures.

Happy Birthday Jeff - Our Ironman

2008-05-20T20:49:00.003-07:00

Happy Birthday to our friend Jeff, who is not just faster than a speeding Yaris and stronger than a Sledgehammer -- he's made of iron:

Karaoke-Jen

2008-04-01T22:41:00.002-07:00

We got some awesome video of Jen singing at her leaving-FSL karaoke party.

Enjoy!

3 Ugly Guys @ Tempe Music Festival

2008-03-25T23:34:00.004-07:00

The 3 Ugly Guys (3UG) are playing this weekend at the Tempe Music Festival. Jen and I have gone to several 3UG shows and enjoyed them all. Our friend, Nick Rivette, is their lead guitarist and my personal Guitar Hero. They have posted a few of their songs on MySpace for your sampling pleasure.

So, if you're free this weekend or next weekend, I recommend checking 3UG out and supporting local music.

Rock on!

Big, Cheap DIY Whiteboard

2008-03-24T17:21:00.004-07:00

I built a 3' x 5' whiteboard for $28.80 using materials you can find at Lowe's or Home Depot. A whiteboard of this size costs $200 or more, if you can find one at all.

Materials:

an 8' x 8' sheet of white panelboard, also called tileboard, cut down to size. The fine folks at Lowe's did this for me.
some 1" x 2" wood (birch?) and L-braces to frame it
D-ring hangers (these are nice because they affix to the back of the frame very with minimal protrusion)
30-lb picture hanging hardware
some wood screws to affix the panelboard to the frame

Assembly is just how you would imagine. If I were to do it again, I might skip the frame and just hang the panelboard directly. Don't be afraid to try that option first. You can always build a frame later.

This thing is sweet.

Ok, back to my architectural diagrams...

Hamlet goes to Spanish Class

2008-03-20T21:22:00.001-07:00

Ser o estar?
Hay es la pregunta.

Book Review: Collective Intelligence

2008-03-04T16:51:00.004-07:00

Have you ever wondered how:

Google comes up with its search results
Amazon recommends you books/movies/music
spam filters decide good from bad

Well, Toby Segaran not only explains these topics and more in Collective Intelligence, but he does so in a way accessible to software developers that haven't worked on machine-learning problems before. He even provides working Python code for all the algorithms.

Oh, and Collective Intelligence reads incredibly well. I could not wait to get home and get back to it -- and when I went in to work the next morning, I usually had a new idea or two of how to improve our software. I also started implementing the most important examples in Groovy to make sure I got it.

If you are a Senior Software Engineer or "better," this is a must-read. Proper application of the algorithms in this book are a great way to simplify your system and avoid getting nickel-and-dimed to death with new ways to prioritize/categorize/slice-and-dice your domain data.

It's not a bug...

2008-03-04T16:45:00.002-07:00

There is some excellent surrealist (ala Magritte) programmer humor at:

http://www.photobasement.com/not-a-bug/

For those who don't get it, but want to, see the Jargon File.

Brilliant.

Book Review: Mastering Regular Expressions

2008-02-16T21:14:00.003-07:00

I just finished the Jeffrey Friedl's Mastering Regular Expressions. My previous regexp education has been driven by the necessity to scan a log file or search or replace a snippet in a source tree -- that is, haphazard. Friedl's book really is worthy of its title and it should carry The Definitive Guide as its subtitle.

Friedl is a Regexp Master and reading this book is really an excellent way to improve your understanding of the theory, implementation, and application of regular expressions.

As a practical result of this book, I have noticed I am more confident in applying regexps in my text editors (UltraEdit and IntelliJ IDEA) for both search and replace -- particularly for "captured groups." This is useful for taking code and turning it into documentation that non-programmers can read.

Create Fixed-Width Files Easily

2008-02-09T16:57:00.001-07:00

If you need to create fixed-width files, you may be interested in a fixed-width recordset builder I wrote for Groovy. It lets you create a set of fixed-width records with the following sort of code:

def builder = new FixedWidthRecordSetBuilder()
builder.TestData(){
  record1(){
    field1(startPosition : 0, width : 5, content : short_content)
    field2(startPosition : 5, width : 10, content : long_content)
  }
  record2(){
    field1(startPosition : 0, width : 5, content : short_content.reverse())
    field2(startPosition : 5, width : 10, content : long_content.reverse())
  }
}

builder.records.each { record ->
 println record.formattedContent  //or to a file
}

You can get the goods from my svn repository:

You can log in with the user guest. The user does not have a password.

The Groovy website has more on the general topic of builders in Groovy.

Enjoy!

Grails 1.0 has been released

2008-02-05T21:16:00.000-07:00

Grails 1.0 has been released! For details, see the release notes.

Grails is a convention-based web/enterprise application development framework that lets developers write in Groovy, but use all of the great existing Java infrastructure libraries like Spring and Hibernate.

I am using Groovy and Grails wherever I can and I love it -- I'm very productive. I also love that Grails 1.0 has a fix for the bug I encountered with 1.0-RC3.

Many thanks to Graeme Rocher and the Grails team.

Book Review: Agile Development With SCRUM

2008-01-07T21:04:00.000-07:00

There's been a lot of press in the software industry over the past few years about Agile development processes. SCRUM has been one of the most talked-about (hyped?) processes and has possibly the most ardent supporters. Ken Schwaber and Mike Beedle's 2001 book Agile Development with SCRUM (ADwS) is the definitive book on SCRUM by the guys who invented it. My conclusion:

Believe the hype.

I've been putting off this review while searching for an approach to describe just how much I enjoyed and agreed with the software development process described by ADwS. As an engineer with training in control systems, probabilities, and statistics, I really connected with the controls-based approach SCRUM uses to eliminate estimation error. As a software developer, I relish the idea of being able to work toward one set of achievable goals for a month before switching directions. As a manager of software projects, I like the idea of having something releasable to my customers every month.

If you're interested in learning more about the SCRUM software development process, I suggest reading Chapter 2 of ADwS and checking out the Control Chaos website. I'm sending these links on to my project manager now...

I also need to purchase a copy of ADwS so that I can read/review it yearly along with Peopleware and The Pragmatic Programmer.

Happy New Year!

2008-01-01T08:22:00.000-07:00

Happy New Year everybody!

I wish you a year of happiness, health and jalapeño poppers.

If you're looking for some help (e.g. gentle reminding) with your New Year's resolutions, take a look at 43things.com.

My Niece, Jacquelyn Kaye

2007-12-14T21:12:00.000-07:00

My niece, Jacquelyn Kaye was born today:

Vital Stats:

Time of Arrival: 3:20PM 12/14/2007
Weight: 6lbs 9oz
Length: 20in

And yes, that's her real hair -- no wig, no extensions. Jacquelyn and Jessica are doing very well (so is Matt). Labor and delivery went very well and very quickly -- something like 2.5 hours. Maybe Jacquelyn will be a sprinter.

Smokin Recipes!

2007-12-09T20:42:00.000-07:00

Thanks to everyone who was able to make it out to the house last weekend. Since there's been a lot of interest in the BBQ Beans and Kailua Pork, I thought I'd post the recipes:

The BBQU.net site has a ton of great recipes, including the one I use for BBQ Beans. If you want to "watch and learn," the chef has a show on the KAET "Create!" channel that shows just how easy smoking and grilling is. I follow the BBQ beans recipe closely except that I use 1/4lb of bacon where the recipe calls for a pound. If you cook the beans in the oven, I recommend some liquid smoke. I can also vouch for the Macaroni and Cheese and Tennessee Pork Loin recipes. I think you can get away with making and using only about 1/4 of the rub the pork loin recipe calls for. However, the rub is nice to keep around -- I actually used some tonight.

For the pork, I consulted Google's first three results for "kailua pork" and came up with this:

Boneless Country Style Short Ribs aka Boston Butt
Sea Salt and Black Pepper, to taste
Chicken Stock / Broth
Liquid Smoke (optional if smoking -- I used a little)

1. Combine above in a foil lasagna pan. The broth is there to keep the pork moist and to add a bit of salt. The broth doesn't need to completely cover the pork, but it should cover at least 3/4 of it.
2. Smoke / roast for ~5 hours. Add a beer (mmm...Fat Tire) around 3 hours or so and half of another one at 4 hours. The tenderness makes huge progress starting at about 4 hours -- I was kinda concerned 3 and a half hours into it because it wasn't as tender as I thought it should be, but everything turned out great.
4. I used mesquite chips for the smoke. Interestingly, there are a lot of mesquite trees in Hawaii which is why I used the mesquite instead of hickory, though I can't imagine mesquite trees are native to Hawaii.

I do all my grilling and smoking in a New Braunfels smoker I've had for 6 years.

Automatic Picture Manipulation with The GIMP

2007-11-24T15:33:00.000-07:00

We like sepia-tone pictures, especially for romantic stuff like weddings. In case you ever have a thousand or even ten pictures you'd like to see in sepia, try this script for The GIMP instead of pointing and clicking:


(define (batch-old-photo pattern)
(let* ((filelist (cadr (file-glob pattern 1))))
(while (not (null? filelist))
    (let* ((filename (car filelist))
           (image (car (gimp-file-load RUN-NONINTERACTIVE
                                       filename filename)))
           (drawable (car (gimp-image-get-active-layer image))))
      (script-fu-old-photo
              image
              drawable
              TRUE
              0
              TRUE
              FALSE
              FALSE)
      (set! drawable (car (gimp-image-get-active-layer image)))
      (gimp-file-save RUN-NONINTERACTIVE
                      image drawable filename filename)
      (gimp-image-delete image))
    (set! filelist (cdr filelist)))))

You can use this script by:

save everything between the parentheses above in a file named ~/.gimp-2.2/scripts/batch-old-photo.scm
copy the files you'd like to convert to sepia to a new directory. WARNING: this script modifies the files it's reading, so make sure you've made copies or your originals will be gone
change into that directory and execute:

gimp -i -b '(batch-old-photo "*.jpg")' -b '(gimp-quit 0)'

For more on the basics of scripting The GIMP, see their tutorial.

Enjoy your new old-timey photos.

Care to search for integers that sum?

2007-11-20T19:04:00.000-07:00

I spent the better part of yesterday pondering how to efficiently search a sorted array of integers to see if a pair of integers within the array sum to given integer.

i.e., given the numbers 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13 -- does any pair of them add up to 8 (yes: 3+5), 13 (yes: 5+8), or 17 (no)?

There's several ways to solve this problem, but the trick is to do it in linear time (only visit each number in the array once) and linear space (don't make any copies of the numbers in the array).

After giving it the old college try, I searched for the proper algorithm and found it.

Here's the resulting Java:


public class IntsForSumJava {

 public static boolean doIntsForSumExist(int[] inputs, int target_sum) {
   int start_idx = 0;
   int end_idx = inputs.length - 1;
   boolean found_target = false;
   int iterations = 0;

   while (!found_target) {
     iterations++;
     int start = inputs[start_idx];
     int end = inputs[end_idx];
     if (end == (target_sum - start)) {
       found_target = true;
     } else if (end > (target_sum - start)) {
       end_idx--;
       if (end_idx > end_idx) {
         break;
       }
     }
   }
   System.out.println("iterations: " + iterations);
   return found_target;
 }

 public static void main(String[] args) {
   int[] inputs = {1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13};
   int target_sum = 0;
   System.out.println("found target (" + target_sum + "): " +
       IntsForSumJava.doIntsForSumExist(inputs, target_sum));
   target_sum = 8;
   System.out.println("found target (" + target_sum + "): " +
       IntsForSumJava.doIntsForSumExist(inputs, target_sum));
   target_sum = 13;
   System.out.println("found target (" + target_sum + "): " +
       IntsForSumJava.doIntsForSumExist(inputs, target_sum));
   target_sum = 17;
   System.out.println("found target (" + target_sum + "): " +
       IntsForSumJava.doIntsForSumExist(inputs, target_sum));
 }
}

Just in case you were wondering...

Happy searching.

Just Married!

2007-11-18T14:08:00.000-07:00

We did it. Jen and I tied the knot November 3 in Maui.

The ceremony and reception went great -- even capped off with a fantastic fireworks display (courtesy of some pharma company). Thanks so much to everyone who attended or wished us well.

Oh, we took some pictures.

I'll have more later on our activities in Maui, Kauai, and Oahu.

Reddit is the new Slashdot

2007-10-20T08:52:00.000-07:00

The programming section at Reddit is is the new Slashdot.

It's a total nerd-time sink.

Slashdot celebrated its 10th anniversary this week and I think Reddit is less than 2 years old, so it remains to be seen if Reddit will be around for the long haul. However, programming.reddit.com definitely reminds me of the Slashdot early days -- sans flame-fest.

SCO is dead!

2007-09-14T22:24:00.000-07:00

Well, they are not quite dead yet, but they've filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection -- possibly in order to stave off a judgment in their lawsuit with Novell. Doesn't sound desperate to me, either.

SCO is the company that falsely claimed that Linux developers had included SCO Intellectual Property without permission into the Linux operating system. They made a bunch of very bold and factually inaccurate claims resulting in lawsuits against IBM, Novell, RedHat, and even a few of their own customers (they sued them!).

Turns out that was a bad idea. Oh well, such is the life of a Microsoft pawn.

What is it, you'd say, you do here?

2007-09-14T17:53:00.000-07:00

Sometimes I get asked what it is I "do." Well, here's what I currently do, explained on Science Friday. MP3 audio is also available from the Science Friday podcast.

The connect the dots picture in the first link is a graph. I'm currently helping develop a system that draws such pictures using financial data for much the same purposes as described in the interview.

Daring Cuisine - Haggis

2007-09-02T10:39:00.000-07:00

Mike Myers claimed that "most Scottish cuisine is based on a dare" in So I Married an Axe Murderer, but I have to say I like haggis, at least in small portions. It's a bit like what many Americans would identify as "hash," though spicier and not as mushy. The spice is of the "Spiced Cider" variety as opposed to the Jalapeno variety.

I should have known that 5 million Scots wouldn't be wrong.

Buy Low, Sell High

2007-08-21T20:21:00.000-07:00

Have the US markets gone low enough yet?

I'm not dead!

2007-08-09T21:19:00.000-07:00

Hey everyone, I'm not dead; I've just been really busy. I finished up (like software is ever finished) at Avnet a few weeks ago and jumped right into my new job at Wells Fargo. Best perk of WF has to be the sunlight -- my "cube plot" is a room with windows. Natural light! Huzzah!

I attended the Desert Software Symposium, which was a Java/Agile/Dynamic-Languages-on-the-JVM SuperNerd-fest. It was absolutely worth the price of admission and will attend again next year, I'm sure.

P.S. a "cube plot" is a small cube farm

Squatters' Rights in AZ?

2007-06-29T22:29:00.001-07:00

We love our new house and it appears we're not alone. Three uninvited, though very welcome, gnomes have set up camp in our backyard.

They brought their landscaping tools, so I think we'll let them stay. I just hope they haven't gained any squatters rights due to their improvement of the property.

I think this guy's the leader.

Have at those oleander leaves, buddy!

I'm not sure where you got that apple, but I probably wouldn't eat it.

Thanks Jeff and Tina!

We've Moved!

2007-06-20T06:48:00.000-07:00

We moved into our new house this past weekend. We love it. Many thanks to Glenn and Sue and Jordan, Wes and Tara, Matt and Jessica, and Michael -- who toiled away in the hot sun and kitchen to help us move our stuff in just one day.

Microsoft, Software Patents, Concavity

2007-05-31T21:32:00.000-07:00

Fortune recently ran an article, Microsoft takes on the free world, announcing that Microsoft was going to be asserting its patent rights against patrons of free and open source software (FOSS). The article starts off all gloom and doom for FOSS, but ends up pretty well-balanced.

However, Fortune senior editor Roger Parloff and I are diametrically opposed when it comes to our conclusions. Mr. Parloff refers to Microsoft's claim that FOSS software infringes on 235 Microsoft patents as "a breathtaking number."

My reaction to this number is: 235? That's it? Microsoft examined their patent portfolio and could only find 235 patents that might be infringed upon by the entire corpus of FOSS?!

That's embarassing.

Microsoft has dominated desktop computing for over 15 years. I'd expect them to have a lot more than 235 patents to trot out considering they are claiming infringement in the Operating System and GUIs (Windows), Office Productivity (Office), and E-mail (Outlook) software. I expect they've kept some in reserve as backup ammunition for the ones that get invalidated or circumvented, but it doesn't seem to even be the right order of magnitude for the industry to be concerned.

The fact of the matter is that Microsoft has not been a leading innovator in computing. They aren't even close to holding the good cards in this game. IBM is -- and IBM likes FOSS. IBM was granted the most US patents in 2006 with a total of 3,651. They have been granted the most US patents on an annual basis for 14 years in a row. Microsoft did not make the top ten last year, though HP, Hitachi, Toshiba, and Intel did. Each of these companies makes significant use of FOSS in products or solutions. Microsoft appears to hold between 5000 and 7000 patents total.

Microsoft's announcement is starting to look like a good bit of Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt (FUD). Ironically, FUD was invented, though not patented, by IBM back when they were trying to crush Amdahl.

The real bad news [for Microsoft and its shareholders] in this story is that it appears Microsoft plans to profit from their patents by:

Smith [Microsoft's general counsel] was not to be deterred. Since the GPL covered only distributors of Linux, nothing stopped Smith from seeking royalties directly from end users - many of which are Fortune 500 companies. He would have to proceed carefully, however, because most of those users were also major Microsoft customers.

Microsoft is going to seek royalties from their own customers when those customers use certain free or open source software. And what will Microsoft do when a customer doesn't want to pay up?

Will Microsoft not sell them Microsoft products? Is this an anti-trust violation due to Microsoft's monopoly status?
Will Microsoft sue that customer to enjoin them from using the "infringing" software?
Will they just move on to the next customer / sucker?

How long will it take for CIOs and Chief Counsels of Microsoft "customers" to start comparing notes about the deals they got? When will they band together and strike back?

I think this "strategy" indicates that Microsoft's shareholder value curve just hit an inflection point and is now concave down after being flat for the last 7 years. If Microsoft continues this course, the best they can hope for is a repeat of SCO's performance, which is not ending well for SCO. Note that SCO is widely considered as a proxy for Microsoft in the FOSS community. The worst thing that could happen for Microsoft and everyone else is for "patent Armageddon" to be unleashed. Microsoft's Smith knows this is a possibility:

"The only real solution that [the free-software] folks have to offer," Smith says, "is that they first burn down the bridge, and then they burn down the patent system. That to me is not a goal that's likely to be achieved, and not a goal that should be achieved."

Not surprisingly, I disagree with Smith. Microsoft will lose quickly, and authoritatively as patent arsenals 10-100x the size of Microsoft's arsenal are unleashed upon it. The downside for the existing leaders of the software industry is that patent Armageddon would inject massive instability as the concept of software patents gets sorted out. Long-term I suspect this might be a good thing as the USPTO is granting many software patents for derivative, obvious, and non-novel work, but it's sure to cause massive blood-letting in the short-term.

Now, I've got to get back to coding my FOSS project. :)

New Addition to the Family

2007-05-12T11:35:00.000-07:00

We (and by we, I mean I) have made a new addition to our family. Please welcome Jeeves. Jeeves is our new bellhop-dog. Not only does Jeeves welcome visitors instead of barking at them, he gladly holds keys and leashes in a most convenient spot next to the front door. We're also teaching him how to take people's coats. This is not going so well, but fortunately for us, this does not come up very often in Phoenix.

If you are interested in a bellhop-dog, check out Bombay Co.

We're Moving

2007-05-11T22:31:00.000-07:00

We bought a house and we'll be moving around June 15. For those familiar with Chandler, it's around Ray and McQueen. We have a park and school nearby. Hopefully I can teach Jojo to cool off by jumping in the pool after our runs.

ClearCase is Dead! Long Live Subversion!

2007-04-19T17:45:00.000-07:00

I finally met my limit with ClearCase at work today and migrated to Subversion.

I originally thought this migration would cost me about 3 days. It actually only cost me about 3 hours. Many thanks to the "One-Click" Subversion Installer.

Open Source Rocks.

I quite like Subversion so far.

Great Article on Load Balancing

2007-03-29T22:14:00.000-07:00

Willy Tarreau, the author of HAProxy, has posted a terrific article on Making Applications Scalable with Load Balancing. If I ever build a site needing to serve more than a few hundred thousand sessions per day, I'll be sure to re-read the article.

ClearCase Considered Harmful

2007-03-28T21:05:00.000-07:00

I'm a big fan of Configuration Management, and I am a long-time user of CVS and short-time user of Subversion. My current project uses ClearCase, which is often considered to be the leading product in the industry. Initially, I was very excited to use ClearCase, because it is [supposedly] designed with the software development process in mind -- especially when using the Unified Configuration Management model. This is in contrast to CVS and Subversion which does not force users to work in any particular way; note that this is often cited as a deficiency of CVS / Subversion.

First the good, ClearCase :

is very good at merging changes or at least, I think it is -- I was warned off branches (activities in UCM ClearCase)
can show you, continuously, what the combination of arbitrary streams of development would look like (say, a development branch and a release branch)

Now the bad, ClearCase:

sometimes decides not to write changes to certain files to disk, so even though changes are hitting the filesystem in some files, they aren't in others. i.e., your editor sees one thing, your compiler and unit tests another. Get set to reboot and rewrite!
will not let you make any change to any file that is not checked out; this doesn't sound too bad at first, but think about how many times you just want to crack open a file and put a couple of print statements in it to figure out if you need to change it. This also inhibits refactoring.
is slow to perform common operations (checkout, refresh) and fast to perform uncommon ones (baseline, graph history)
has many separate user interfaces for no particular reason, as far as I can tell. There's no equivalent of WinCVS or TortoiseSVN. Note, I'd probably rather be using the command-line interface (cleartool), anyway, but I am having such a difficult time grasping it (see next point) that I'm afraid to try it. In particular, the UI presented by the IBM Rational Software Development Platform, which is based on Eclipse, is abysmal. I actually find the ClearCase plugin for NetBeans far more usable, which is pretty amazing considering that the Rational SDP is a product sold / bundled by IBM and the NetBeans plugin isn't.
causes everyone around to disavow any knowledge of it -- maybe some people do know it and just don't want to share because they're busy, but I doubt it. Nobody seems to get ClearCase and all mumble about using something easier.

In the end, I think ClearCase is too sophisticated for its own good, even when using the simplified UCM model, especially for small teams. It's clear to me that I'm probably not going to get much better at ClearCase without some training by an experienced user. I've already got one of the best books available for ClearCase and it's not helping.

I think I might just set up a Subversion repository, do all my work there, and check it into ClearCase when I'm done. I'd probably have a net time savings after the first 3 days of use.

Essential Browser Plugins for Web Developers

2007-03-17T09:18:00.000-07:00

I'm developing a web application that makes significant use of AJAX to improve usability. Inspection of the live DOM and JavaScript is the easiest way to debug the code. In Firefox, there is great plugin support for this:

HTML Tidy - validates HTML against the referenced DocType; I treat this as sort of a "compile" check
Web Developer - supports live DOM inspection, live CSS editing, resizing the window to particular resolutions, cookie and cache management, and much more
Firebug - live inspection and debugging of JavaScript, CSS, and DOM

I also found a really nice plugin this week for Internet Explorer, the Internet Explorer Developer Toolbar. This plugin does most of what the Web Developer plugin for Firefox does, except for the live CSS editing.

Being able to "find element by click" makes working in both browsers much easier. I am still looking for a JavaScript inspector / debugger for IE. Unfortunately, the current code's HTML and JavaScript is tied to IE in certain places because I haven't had the chance to add id elements and such so I can't just do the debugging in Firefox. I will probably integrate MochiKit so I don't alert myself to death.

The Art of SQL - Book Review

2007-02-18T14:40:00.000-07:00

The Art of SQL teaches the general skills and describes the subtlties necessary to use a relational database management system (RDBMS) properly. Stephane Faroult focuses on why and when the strategies he details are appropriate. This is not a tips 'n' tricks for [PostgreSQL / Oracle / MySQL] book.

I really enjoyed this book and highly recommend it to anyone responsible for designing an application's data model or improving an existing one.

The Art of SQL is written in a very personal, humorous way and I could tell I was learning from Faroult's hard-earned lessons. I read most of this book while attending an "Art of Teradata" class / seminar taught by a top-shelf Teradata consultant. Both the Art of SQL and Teradata are strong proponents of properly normalized data models and I have to say I've drunk that Kool-Aid. That I've also fixed several de-normalization problems probably helps with that, too.

Remember...schemas are forever. This book can help you to avoid creating a mistake or help you get out of one.

New Job - Avnet

2007-02-18T14:18:00.000-07:00

Oops, I've done it again.

I've accepted a position at Avnet and I'm really looking forward to it. I'll be the technical lead for a team building applications to support Avnet's supply chain. Since Avnet's business is distribution of electronics (like what Freescale, my soon-to-be-former employer, manufactures), my work will have a direct impact on the revenue-producing portion of Avnet's business.

This is my favorite place to be.

LEGO - Circle Circle Dot Dot

2007-01-21T15:11:00.000-07:00

I ran across this on YouTube today. If you like LEGO, you gotta check it out:
http://youtube.com/watch?v=O-tkqpHnxTI

The song, 'Circle Circle Dot Dot' is from Jamie Kennedy's 'Blowin Up' album. I'm going to have to check that out...

If you've personally posted something on YouTube, please send me a link.

I Love Poppers - the T-Shirt

2006-12-31T15:54:00.000-07:00

Our friends Allie and Jason gave me an custom made t-shirt that says:

I LOVE POPPERS

on the front above a Jalapeno.

I love this t-shirt.

The shirt has entered my favorite t-shirts rotation and will be making bi-weekly appearances at Costco and Target. See you there.

The t-shirt was made at uberprints.com.

'95 Eclipse GSX - For Sale

2006-12-29T15:16:00.000-07:00

My 1995 Mitsubishi Eclipse GSX is for sale:

The car has a lot of performance parts installed and is in good shape, mechanically. Full details and more pictures are available. I am asking $6,250.

If you or anyone you know is interested, drop an e-mail to skuenzli "at" gmail "dot" com.

Merry Christmas!

2006-12-25T08:21:00.000-07:00

Love,
Stephen, Jen, and Jojo

We Set a Date

2006-12-04T21:06:00.000-07:00

Jen and I are going to get married on November 3, 2007. The location is Poolenalena Beach on Maui, HI.

I, and my groomsmen, will be wearing Hawaiian shirts. No joke.

I love Jen.

What goes with poppers?

2006-11-13T19:37:00.000-07:00

I love poppers.

Sometimes I eat them plain, or with ranch dressing (worlds collide!). Today, I tried them with Mrs. Renfro's Habanero Salsa. That's some good snackin' -- the best yet.

I need to whip up some spicy guacamole. That could be a good match.

Are you partial to a particular popper pairing?

Hidden Value - Book Review

2006-11-07T20:12:00.000-07:00

Stephen: Honestly? No, I wouldn't hire you as a sustainer.
Jen: Are you kidding? I sustained RTD and MID for years!
Stephen: [hmm...the truth might not have been a good idea]

Hidden Value is a book by Charles O'Reilly about people, companies, culture -- and how the right mix can accomplish great things. I'd go so far as to call it a great, even inspiring, book. I took notes.

The central idea of the book is that by fostering an environment of:

teamwork
accountability
collaboration
autonomy
trust

companies can yield the benefits of employees who take ownership of their work environment and do the right thing to improve it.

Manage less, trust and verify more.

Nice.

Hidden Value also emphasizes the importance of hiring people that fit will fit into the company's culture. Cultural fit is considered more important than an aptitude for specific skills. Herb Kellher, longtime CEO of Southwest Airlines is quoted as saying:

"We draft great attitudes. If you don't have a good attitude, we don't want you, no matter how skilled you are. We can change skill levels through training. We can't change attitude."

This is a fabulous approach for a large company, especially one such as Southwest Airlines where a star pilot is probably not more than 10% better than the median pilot. This probably still applies to a good extent in a small software company. The difference between a star and the median developer in the software industry is probably 100-1000% when measuring both quantity and quality. However, I don't think it's possible to hide a bad attitude from a customer in a small company. The attitude of developers is bound to bleed into a small software company's products and services.

If a company treats its people like people, and not assets, then it is in a great position to ask its people to treat its customers like people too. Customers like being treated like people because they are people. Having happy customers makes it a lot easier to get and maintain a positive income statement.

QED or something like that.

So, would I still tell Jen I wouldn't hire her as a sustainer? I don't know. I do know I would have broadened my "interview" question from:

"Have you used Perl or another scripting language to automate system maintenance?"

to:

"Have you ever written a program to automate something you found repetitive or error-prone?"

I think this is a much better question because it focuses more on the desired behavior than a particular skillset. I certainly agree with Herb that a scripting language skill can be taught, whereas the desire to automate work that can be automated is not likely to be taught. It's probably best not to pay someone while you wait for a behavior "light" to come on.

The Purple Nugget

2006-10-22T21:10:00.000-07:00

Here is the story of our engagement weekend...

The Occasion
Our friend Horacio is in the Navy and is headed to Iraq. I offered to drive his vehicle from his home in San Diego to his family in Tucson. I asked Jen if she wanted to go to San Diego with me. She asked if we could go to the Hotel Del Coronado in order to check a box in the 1000 Places to See book and also to the diamond district in L.A. So, not only did she set the stage for the proposal, she also pretty much told me what the answer would be.

In baseball, this situation is what is referred to as a meatball.

The Del
We earned our checkmark at the Del with a tour of the hotel and a couple glasses of wine. There was a wedding and reception in progress, which naturally turned the conversation to the lovely question of "when are we getting married?" My answer of "I don't know, I'm not sure," garnered a frown, but such is the stuff of great dramas.

Sensing now was the time for a change of venue, I paid the check and suggested a walk down the Silver Strand.

The Question
We chatted about our future as we walked along the beach. Just before dusk hit its head on the horizon, I:

dropped one knee into the sand
pulled out The Purple Nugget
asked Jen if she would marry me

Jen responded with:

shock
laughter
a huge smile, and one word:

"Yes"

She also said "oh my God, it's hideous" and "do I have to wear it?" So...I count three yeses.

The Ring
Intrepid reader: She laughed? Isn't that a bad thing?
Me: Nope, this was by design. You see, it is pretty unreasonable for someone who wears blue whenever he can to pick out an engagement ring. Believe me, there were plenty of hints along the way indicating that she wanted to be "involved" in that process.

So how do you surprise your honey with a ring and let her pick her engagement ring? By giving her a reference to an engagement ring, of course!

Enter The Purple Nugget:

The Purple Nugget is somewhat of an inside joke, as whenever we make one of our frequent trips to Kohl's we get to look at all the jewelry. The Mystic Topaz rings are a prominent, hard-to-miss feature in the case. Now, I actually think the ring is nice enough that it can make appearances at parties and such in our future. Jen's initial reaction of shock and (horrified) laughter made this look doubtful, but she has become quite fond of it since. We decided that it makes Jen look like the female counterpart to a certain superhero.

Afterword
Jen and I spent a week ring shopping and the real deal is scheduled to arrive soon. So, The Purple Nugget may be going to the right hand or in a jewelry box, but we will always have the story.

We're Engaged!

2006-10-18T08:59:00.000-07:00

I proposed to Jen this past weekend. She made me very happy by saying yes. We are both very excited. I will post the full story and pictures later, but for now you'll have to do with a simple FAQ:

Q: Are you crazy?
A: Yes, though I prefer you to use the term eccentric.

Q: Have you picked a date, location, etc yet?
A: No, but I am sure these details will be posted here or at kuenzli.org when they become available. Have faith in the SuperNerd.

Q: What does the ring look like?
A: It's round and has a giant rock on top...but actually that will be changing due to the way the proposal "went down." The previously-promised full story will clarify this bit.

Q: Are you excited/pumped/ecstatic?
A: Absolutely. Jen is the bomb and I think we are perfect for each other.

Q: Who is this mysterious "Jen" and why doesn't she have a blog?
A: Hmmm... That is an excellent two-part question. I will have to talk to her about getting a blog so that she can reveal all sorts of exciting details. For now, you can look through my pictures at kuenzli.org starting with Costa Rica and later. If there is a girl in the picture, it is probably Jen.

Florida Pictures Available

2006-09-12T21:26:00.000-07:00

Our Florida pictures are available here:
http://kuenzli.org/stephen/

We had a great time. Our itinerary was:

Manatees in Crystal River
Florida Aquarium in Tampa Bay
Dali Museum in St. Petersburg
Epcot Center at DisneyWorld, Orlando
Tara and Wes' Wedding on the Boardwalk at DisneyWorld, Orlando
Kennedy Space Center in Cape Canaveral
Little Havana in Miami
The Everglades
Miami Beach, South Beach, Key Largo, Coconut Grove, Coral Gables 'in Miami'

I love Cuban food.

New J-O-B

2006-08-31T21:38:00.000-07:00

I accepted a new position on the Enterprise Portal and Intranet Applications (EPIA) team within Freescale IT. We are responsible for maintaining a lot of Freescale's internal websites. We don't do the external site (www.freescale.com), but we sit next to the people who do.

On the technology front, I'm looking forward to learning a lot of new stuff, like Struts, Python, and NetWeaver. I'm also looking forward to sharing what I know about Spring, Rails, and Maven.

On the people and experience front, I am excited to meet Freescalers from many different parts of the business: sales, engineering, finance, and human resources.

On to the next chapter...

Japan Pictures Available

2006-08-25T09:33:00.000-07:00

Our Japan pictures are available here:
http://kuenzli.org/stephen/

I am working on several posts about Japan, as well.

Arigato Nippon - Haiku

2006-08-21T03:29:00.000-07:00

your land is serene
your people are enchanting
thanks for all the fish

Yodatastic version:
serene your land is
enchanting your people are
for all the fish, thanks

The Tipping Point - Book Review

2006-08-21T03:16:00.000-07:00

The Tipping Point is a Design Patterns book for creating social epidemics. I feel like I can utilize Gladwell's concepts regarding epidemics to reach, grow, and serve customers better.

Verdict: This is good stuff.

The book describes "how little things can make a big difference." This idea is certainly not new and you could imagine plucking this phrase from a context of quality, customer service, or even oil filters. The 'little things' Gladwell describes are sociological in nature and he distills his thoughts into three change agents.

The Law of the Few
Gladwell postulates that fads, epidemics, and other changes that occur in large groups of people are actually the result of the influence of a few highly-influential people -- the Pareto Principle (aka the "80/20 rule"). He calls this the Law of the Few. The key roles in the Law of the Few :

Maven - someone who is the go-to person for answers on a broad topic such as shopping, travel, or computers; this person is compelled to stay at the leading edge of knowledge on the topic and shares his knowledge enthusiastically with everyone around him
Connector - someone who interacts meaningfully with hundreds or even thousands of people on a regular basis; Connectors are the reason "Six Degrees of Kevin Bacon" works
Salesman - someone who is highly effective at persuading other people to take action; the effectiveness is derived from not just the logic of the Salesman's argument, but in the emotional connection made with the person being persuaded

Stickiness Factor
Gladwell also argues that whether an idea bursts into popularity or fades into the darkness is also influenced by the idea's Stickiness Factor -- which is merely the tendency for an idea to stay alive within a community. I especially enjoyed this section as Gladwell described not only how Sesame Street and Blue's Clues were made sticky to the target audience, little kids, but how they measured and improved stickiness before broadcast.

Power of Context
Gladwell's third and final "little thing" is the "Power of Context." The idea is that people are influenced by the environmental factors around them: weather, road closures, location of friends, and usability. Brilliant.

Conclusion
The Good:

case studies and other examples of the tipping point theory in action
naming the three key roles that create social epidemics is an effective shorthand

The Bad:

a bit redundant at times
re-invents Metcalfe's Law, by quoting Kevin Kelly and his "fax effect"

None of the ideas presented are particularly brilliant when taken alone. The brilliance is in the ability to synthesize these ideas into a strategy that enables and supports Mavens, Connectors, and Salesmen in doing what they do naturally -- start an epidemic.

Sayonara Nippon - Haiku

2006-08-18T18:48:00.000-07:00

our journey nears end
your train took us there quickly
memories remain

Yodatastic version:
nears end our journey
quickly your train took us
remember we will

I don‘t　need no stinkin` toothpaste

2006-08-12T15:56:00.000-07:00

Jen and I made it to Japan. Despite all the warnings about hours-long lines, we breezed straight through check-in and security. Perhaps we made our own good fortune by checking our toothpaste. We flew in style on a 777, which had the more room in economy class than I thought was possible. David and Akiko met us at the gate and escorted us through a great first day in Japan. Highlights of the day include seeing the Rainbow Bridge, which is done in the style of the Brooklyn Bridge and our first course of Japanese sushi, which was excellent. We have a great picture of Jen eating shrimp. Mmm...Creamy!

We are staying at the Toyoko Inn in Chiba, which we quite like so far. We will be staying at several Toyoko Inns during our trip. Ok, we are off to the train station to meet David and Akiko in Ichigawa, which is where David lives. We are going to try and go to the Tokyo Fish Market and see kabuki in the Giza district.

Fun, fun.

TTYL.

Preparing for Japan

2006-08-06T18:52:00.000-07:00

Jen finished up the itinerary for our trip to Japan this morning around 2AM. We leave on Thursday, and it is shaping up to be a great trip! I am really looking forward to relaxing and snarfing sushi. We will spend a lot of time traveling on airplanes and trains this trip. I plan to use that time to read The Tipping Point and A Short History of Nearly Everything. Here is the where part of our itinerary:

Dallas/Ft. Worth
Tokyo (Narita Airport), staying in Chiba so we can see Jen's brother, David
Kyoto
Osaka
Oshino (Mt. Fuji area)
Tokyo

We are going to do this trip backpacker style -- at least we're using backpacks instead of suitcases. I think I convinced Jen on our trip to Costa Rica that backpacks are the way to go -- especially when traveling by train.

Sayonara!